Previewing the North Carolina vs Oregon Final Four Game Tonight

Final Four 

No. 3 Oregon vs No. 1 North Carolina – 8:49 pm

Line: North Carolina -5

I need to get this out of my system one last time. Fucking Luke Maye.

Okay, I feel better. This is the game that it seems like everyone is more interested in. Oregon was a top-5 team in the preseason while North Carolina is, well, North Carolina. I do believe this is the best coaching job that Roy Williams has done in his career, at least in recent memory. When you throw in the fact they lost Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige and to rebound from the heartbreak of last season combined with the fact he’s stayed out of the way this year, it’s been impressive. The knock on Roy was he often cost his team a game or two during the season by his timeout decisions or weird scheme in the middle of the game. That hasn’t happened. He’s done an incredible job of coaching this team.

Everyone wants to know how Oregon’s bigs can handle North Carolina in this game, especially without Chris Boucher. Luckily, there are a couple things in favor for Oregon here. First, they don’t get in foul trouble often. Jordan Bell hasn’t had more than 2 fouls in a game since mid February. The Ducks as a team are 11th in the nation in not fouling, giving up just 25.9 percent FTA/FGA. I also got asked this week about Oregon relying on blocking shots and how do you block UNC. Well, Carolina actually gets blocked more than 221 other schools in the country. They can get careless with the ball.

Obviously UNC will play through the post though. It’s what they do best besides get out in transition and with Altman really keeping a six man rotation, it makes sense just to keep trying to attack Bell. Expect to see Altman have a similar gameplan to what he did against Michigan when he rotated defenses numerous times, keeping them guessing. He’ll throw out his 1-2-2 3/4 court zone, he’ll run a switching man in the 1/2 court, he’ll run a 1/2 court 2-3 zone.

I’m curious to see how Roy defends Brooks. I fully expect Theo Pinson to be on Tyler Dorsey, which means do you put Justin Jackson or Isaiah Hicks on Brooks. Hicks often gets caught in foul trouble while Brooks can take Jackson in the post. It’s no surprise, but Brooks is the key here. He’s been Oregon’s third best player so far in the NCAA Tournament, which is saying something for them to get to the Final Four. If he all of a sudden breaks out this game, North Carolina can be in serious trouble.

The other key is Joel Berry’s health. We saw him turn his ankle against Kentucky, which was the opposite ankle that was already injured. So heading into a game where Oregon will apply the 3/4 court press and want to get up and down, Berry is playing on two bum wheels.

Speaking of transition you will see an effort by Oregon to get back defensively. They really only send Bell and maybe one more guy tops to the offensive glass and in this game I wouldn’t be surprised to only see Bell attack the glass. The thing to watch in this though is how UNC’s bigs run in transition, especially when Maye is on the floor.

Offensively, Oregon will try to beat UNC off the dribble and look for either the shooter relocating or the cutter. They’ve been wildly effective in the drive and kick, especially as they can get stagnant on offense at times. Luckily, they do have guys like Brooks and Dorsey who can bail them out late in the shot clock. They do like to go ISO with those two, especially at the top of the key.

Pick: I’m taking Oregon +5 here. I do think UNC wins this game, but I want to see how Berry looks after those ankle injuries. On top of that I think Altman’s defensive schemes can give Carolina some fits and we’re still waiting to see Brooks go off on the offensive side of the ball.